tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6288862798546085706.post8693372736874154390..comments2024-02-08T03:39:11.256-05:00Comments on Econometrics By Simulation: 1.2 Million Deaths by Ebola projected within Six Months?Francishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16658586705916884436noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6288862798546085706.post-22413729760890818342014-10-20T10:16:49.443-04:002014-10-20T10:16:49.443-04:00I appreciate your feedback, but I am confused at t...I appreciate your feedback, but I am confused at to what you are suggesting. Including other factors in the model necessitates the development of an alternative model. In this case, the 24 previous outbreaks were both much smaller in scale and much more localized, resulting outbreaks that were containable given the resources available.<br /><br />Overall, the point of this model is not to explain every Ebola epidemic that has ever occurred but to provide simple estimates of how the epidemic might develop. Ultimately we are constrained by our data. It is not possible to include every possible factor that could explain how this epidemic might have occurred and spread since the data is extremely limited.Francishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16658586705916884436noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6288862798546085706.post-39125079751919368802014-10-20T04:37:44.273-04:002014-10-20T04:37:44.273-04:00Modeling is useful in many cases. However, this o...Modeling is useful in many cases. However, this outbreak is primarily due to cultural traditions. Thus, human behavior is something that models are not able to predict. There have been 24 outbreaks of ebola since 1976, this data would also be useful to consider when making a model, since those outbreaks took place in other countries that do not have the same traditions, thus a more accurate representative of infection rates.<br /><br />Also, as you can now see the high death rates are likely caused by the lack of medical facilities. Those treated in modern facilities are having much higher survival rates.<br /><br />So these are other factors that must be taken into consideration when creating a mathematical model.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6288862798546085706.post-86990580639333576782014-10-07T18:03:54.960-04:002014-10-07T18:03:54.960-04:00Thanks Francis, this is very interesting work.
Now...Thanks Francis, this is very interesting work.<br />Now that we have a few more weeks of data, how is the model from mid sept holding up?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6288862798546085706.post-46919326024429689442014-10-05T19:58:29.938-04:002014-10-05T19:58:29.938-04:00Thank you for this analysis. I am trying to run th...Thank you for this analysis. I am trying to run the code in RStudio and get an error message at this line:<br /><br /># I have borrowed Andrie's code from stackoverflow<br /># http://goo.gl/noYVo7<br />source("http://goo.gl/w64gfp")<br /><br />The message is:<br /><br />Error in file(filename, "r", encoding = encoding) : <br /> cannot open the connection.<br /><br />When I open http://goo.gl/w64gfp in Google Chrome it opens the list of functions as described.<br /><br />source() seems to work on other webpages. I tried<br /><br />source("http://bioconductor.org/biocLite.R") which opened normally.<br /><br />As a work around, I downloaded the CSV and modified the code and used the Excel base date:<br /><br />ebola <- read.csv("Ebola - Countries.csv", header=TRUE, sep = ",") # %>% as.data.frame<br /><br />ebola$Date <- as.Date(ebola$Date, origin = "1899-12-30") <br /><br />ebola$Day <- ebola$Date-min(ebola$Date)<br /><br />But I am interested to know why the "source("http://goo.gl/w64gfp")" does not work?<br /><br />Thank youJan Vandermeerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05408770355003970101noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6288862798546085706.post-43839514581715092762014-09-22T02:46:26.546-04:002014-09-22T02:46:26.546-04:00Thank you for a great post! Please keep updating i...Thank you for a great post! Please keep updating it!Torgunn Karoline Moehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17745276512357885815noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6288862798546085706.post-40375304437743261612014-09-18T18:58:33.959-04:002014-09-18T18:58:33.959-04:00Thanks for your comment Byran. I had difficulty fi...Thanks for your comment Byran. I had difficulty finding the original source of the WHO numbers so I ended up deciding to just drop data points I could not source. Now that there are updated reports that I can directly reference I am happy referencing those. By the way, this does not change my model since the post was written with data only up until August 28th. I will post something again soon with an updated model.Francishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16658586705916884436noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6288862798546085706.post-17053058637618274192014-09-15T09:13:17.835-04:002014-09-15T09:13:17.835-04:00Thanks for your time to do this analysis. Some dat...Thanks for your time to do this analysis. Some data could not be related with real date, for example WHO reported 2296 deaths as of 6 sept not 9 sept in your chart. Maybe this change the model?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01452874432810361563noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6288862798546085706.post-41272048944541552912014-09-13T01:23:57.016-04:002014-09-13T01:23:57.016-04:00I hate to say this but if it appears that things s...I hate to say this but if it appears that things start to spike, as your graphs indicate, the only hope to stop the spread will be cautery, :(Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com